Layered onto this environment is a significant mortgage renewal cycle moving through the system. Roughly 60% of mortgage holders renewing between 2025 and 2026 are expected to face higher payments after locking in historically low rates, bringing renewed financial pressure and forced decision-making into focus. This renewal wave is expected to peak around mid-year. For some households, higher payments will strain affordability; for others, they may trigger refinancing, downsizing, or delayed moves. Periods like this often mark inflection points—when markets recalibrate and opportunity begins to emerge for those prepared to act deliberately.
BC Assessment has released 2026 property assessment values for approximately 1.14 million properties across the Lower Mainland, reflecting market conditions as of July 1, 2025. The data shows a broad softening in values across most communities, with total assessed value declining from roughly $2.01 trillion in 2025 to about $1.92 trillion in 2026. Many single-family and strata properties recorded year-over-year decreases, generally ranging from flat to down around 10%, as the housing market cooled.
Even high-end properties were not immune. Chip Wilson’s Point Grey estate saw its assessed value fall to approximately $73.5 million, down from last year. This marks the first broad-based assessment decline since 2020 and has resulted in the BC Home Owner Grant threshold being lowered to $2.075 million for 2026.
Land and title uncertainty has become a growing issue in British Columbia’s real estate and development landscape. Ongoing legal ambiguity following a recent British Columbia Supreme Court decision involving the Cowichan Tribes has raised broader concerns around Aboriginal title. While the court has paused declarations for up to 18 months pending appeal, questions around co-ownership risk, permitting certainty, financing, and land valuation remain unresolved across the market.
The impact is already tangible. Montrose Property Holdings has publicly stated it lost a $35 million lender and multiple tenants after investing roughly $7.5 million into a warehouse project, citing title-related risk on fee-simple land. Separately, a planned $98 million hotel transaction in Richmond collapsed amid heightened uncertainty and later closed for $51.5 million to a Hong Kong–based buyer. Premier David Eby has acknowledged the broader economic implications, noting that financing conditions and transaction certainty have come under pressure. With an estimated 95% of land in British Columbia subject to unresolved Aboriginal title claims, the implications extend well beyond individual projects, influencing investment decisions, development timelines, and long-term economic confidence.
To better understand whether a specific property falls within a First Nations claim area, owners and buyers can consult the provincial treaty and land claims map: Treaty Map.
Tensions between local governments and the province have continued to escalate. Sixteen Metro Vancouver mayors have publicly called for a pause on elements of recent provincial housing legislation, including Bill 44, which permits small-scale multi-unit housing of up to four units on formerly single-family lots, as well as Bill 47. Municipal leaders argue the changes were imposed with limited local consultation and have raised concerns around infrastructure capacity, servicing costs, and neighbourhood pushback—issues that surfaced clearly during recent public hearings in Burnaby.
Housing Minister Christine Boyle has rejected calls to repeal the legislation, maintaining that accelerating housing supply remains necessary despite strained municipal finances. Eby has characterized the pushback as largely political, while emphasizing that municipalities will require increased federal infrastructure funding to support higher-density growth.
On the development side, financial pressure is intensifying. Square Nine Developments has faced multiple foreclosures across Surrey and Burnaby tied to debts reportedly exceeding $100 million, including high-interest private loans on projects such as the 30-storey One8 tower. The Belvedere site remains under creditor protection until January 31, underscoring the strain developers are facing amid tighter financing conditions and weaker presales.
At the same time, major developers including Beedie Living, Polygon Homes, Cressey Development Group, and Westbank have publicly urged federal and provincial governments to revisit Canada’s foreign buyer ban. Industry leaders argue the restrictions are weighing on presales and limiting access to capital in markets like British Columbia, where international purchasers have historically helped projects meet presale thresholds required for construction financing. These concerns have been raised directly with senior policymakers, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, federal and provincial housing ministers, and the provincial premier.
The industry is advocating for a more targeted framework—similar to approaches used in Australia—that restrict foreign ownership of existing homes while allowing investment in new construction and presales. Developers argue this would protect local buyers while supporting housing supply, employment, and project viability. Governments have so far resisted lifting the federal ban or provincial foreign buyer taxes, maintaining a focus on curbing speculation and preserving affordability. However, pressure from the development sector continues to build as builders warn of prolonged slowdowns in housing starts without policy adjustments.
2026 is increasingly being framed as a potential inflection point for artificial intelligence and its influence on financial markets. A number of prominent investors and strategists have begun cautioning that enthusiasm around AI may have outpaced fundamentals. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates has warned that parts of the AI trade exhibit bubble-like characteristics, while other fund managers and market strategists have advised against concentrating portfolios too heavily in AI-related equities given elevated valuations. Together, these views suggest the possibility of a valuation reset rather than a collapse.
Within private markets, many venture capital investors are increasingly expecting a shake-out among AI startups, with funding tightening and capital flowing more selectively toward companies with defensible technology, clear revenue paths, and sustainable unit economics. This dynamic reflects a broader maturation cycle, where weaker or undifferentiated players struggle to survive as expectations around growth and returns normalize.
Veteran investor Bill Gurley has echoed these concerns, criticizing excessive capital deployment and warning against growth-at-all-costs strategies. He has repeatedly emphasized the importance of discipline, profitability, and real customer demand over hype-driven narratives. Should this more cautious outlook gain traction, it could reshape capital allocation across both public and private markets—cooling speculative tech valuations while encouraging diversification beyond AI-centric investments.
]]>With nine Bank of Canada rate cuts since the 2024 peak, borrowing costs have finally moved low enough to boost real purchasing power again. For a typical Vancouver household, buying power has jumped since rates topped out—and prices themselves have come down. That combination, paired with record-level pent-up demand after years of hesitation, sets the stage for buyers to re-enter the market with renewed momentum in 2026.
November delivered quieter headline numbers but stronger fundamentals. Sales softened month-over-month—normal for this time of year—but new listings fell much faster, pushing the ratio up to 49% from 41% in October. Active inventory dropped across most areas, still a buyer’s market but trending tighter. Many submarkets—including Vancouver East, the Westside, North Vancouver, Burnaby East, and several Tri-Cities communities—posted healthier ratios as sellers pulled back and motivated buyers stepped in.
Across the Fraser Valley, the same pattern repeated: fewer new listings, shrinking inventory, and improving balance despite slower seasonal sales. Even in the Fraser Valley—still sitting at 10 months of supply—inventory declined sharply, and prices ticked up 2% month-over-month as competition increased. Markets like Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, and parts of Burnaby saw some of the strongest conditions in the region, driven by affordability and limited supply.
Overall, November was telling. Inventory is falling faster than sales. Ratios are improving. Confidence is building as rates settle. And with 2025 on track to record the fewest transactions since 2000—despite over a million more people living in the region—the backlog of buyers and sellers is growing. This winter may feel calm, but the foundation is forming for a more active, competitive 2026.
Distressed mortgages on the rise
Canada is seeing a noticeable rise in mortgage stress, with mortgage arrears climbing to the highest level since 2020 at major Canadian banks. According to data from the Canadian Bankers Association, the arrears rate reached around 0.24% in September 2025, up from record lows in mid-2022, and the number of mortgages at least 90 days past due has increased sharply — more than 60% above the lows seen a few years ago. This uptick comes against a backdrop of a shrinking total mortgage stock at banks, which amplifies the impact of each delinquency.
Vancouver property tax 0% increase for 2026
Vancouver City Council approved a 0% property tax increase for 2026, sticking with Mayor Ken Sim’s “Zero Means Zero” promise. The idea is to give homeowners and businesses a break next year while still keeping core services running. To make it work, the city will need to find about $120 million in savings — trimming around the edges without affecting services like police, fire, libraries, or community centres.
The move has been divisive. Hundreds of residents and groups showed up to speak at council meetings, and unions warned the freeze could lead to job cuts or reduced services down the line. Supporters say it’s a needed breather during a tough affordability stretch; critics say the math doesn’t add up without something giving. The decision to not raise taxes comes after the Sim administration hit taxpayers with property tax increases of 10.7, 7.28 and 3.9 per cent over the first three years of ABC Vancouver’s term at city hall.
Speculation and Vacancy Tax to increase in 2026
B.C. is moving ahead with an increase to its Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT) in 2026 even as the federal government scraps its own underused housing tax. Under changes outlined in the provincial budget, SVT rates will rise — for most Canadian and permanent-resident owners from 0.5% to 1% of assessed value, and for foreign owners and untaxed worldwide earners from 2% to 3% — effective for the 2026 tax year. To help offset the higher levy for local residents, the non-refundable SVT credit will also be increased.
The provincial government has positioned the tax as a tool to encourage residential properties to be used as homes rather than investment vehicles, and to support affordable housing initiatives. This provincial plan now stands in contrast to federal policy, with Ottawa eliminating its Underused Housing Tax, which had seen limited uptake and revenue, prompting questions across the market about the alignment and effectiveness of housing tax measures.
]]>Active listings climbed to 16,393, up 13% from last October and 36% above the long-term average. The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 14.2%, with detached homes seeing the softest demand at 11%. Prices continue to ease across all property types. The benchmark price for a detached home now sits at $1,916,400, down 4.3% year over year. Townhomes are at $1,066,700, down 3.8%, while condos are down 5.1% to $718,900. Buyers still have strong purchasing power and opportunity in this market, although overall months of inventory dropped from 9 to 7, suggesting a tightening dynamic.
As uncertainty around trade policy and interest rates subsides, the BC Real Estate Association forecasts residential sales in the Lower Mainland to recover by nearly 20% in 2026, with limited composite price growth of roughly 2.5%. On the interest rate outlook, economists are divided, but the expectation is that we’ve seen the last cut for 2025 — with possibly one more to come in Q1 2026.
What’s becoming clear is that October marked the first meaningful sign of balance returning to the market, as lower interest rates, easing inventory, and improving buyer sentiment began to converge. While total sales remain below the long-term average, the pace at which quality listings are being absorbed suggests the market may tighten faster than expected heading into winter. Detached and townhome segments are showing renewed stability, while the condo market—particularly in newer developments—offers some of the best value and incentives buyers have seen in years. After a long stretch of hesitation, confidence is gradually returning. It’s not a surge, but the early stage of a more balanced recovery, where motivated buyers are starting to re-emerge and sellers are adjusting their expectations to meet them.
Burnaby scales back multiplex rules
Burnaby City Council has approved changes to its R1 zoning bylaw to scale down the size and height of small-scale multi-unit housing (SSMUH) projects. The move comes in response to community concerns about preserving neighbourhood character while meeting provincial housing mandates.
Under new provincial legislation, cities must allow at least four units on most single-family lots—and up to six near frequent transit. Burnaby initially updated its zoning in 2024 to comply, but has now adopted amendments that:
Mayor Mike Hurley said the goal is to “balance new options with the qualities residents value,” while Coun. Pietro Calendino noted the city still expects to meet its provincial housing targets despite the tighter rules.
City of Vancouver’s tax sale
If a property has unpaid taxes for three years, it is auctioned at city hall in a tax sale, which typically discounts the market value of these properties significantly. Much like a foreclosure, auctioned properties are sold as is, and the city is not responsible for the condition or quality of the property being sold. In one recent instance, a leasehold condo sale was canceled after city staff discovered that the owner had been deceased since 2016. BC Assessment valued the property at $1.6 million in 2024, while the buyer’s bid was $271,944 and change.
The bidder almost got away with a steal of a deal, but there was a fatal flaw in the process, and city council was asked to cancel the sale and return the “upset price” to the prospective buyer with interest. This year’s auction will be held on November 12 at 10 a.m. in the Joe Wai Room on the main floor of Vancouver City Hall (453 W 12th Ave). It’s usually a packed house, so prepare for competition — and you can preview the properties up for auction online one week prior at vancouver.ca/taxsale.
Behind Vancouver’s River District
Vancouver’s River District is a 130-acre master-planned waterfront community along the Fraser River by Wesgroup, featuring 7,000 homes, 250,000 sqft of retail, and 25 acres of parkland. It’s Vancouver’s last major waterfront development, built to be sustainable with a district energy system cutting emissions by up to 90%.
Projects like River District are getting more difficult than ever to complete. Over the past decade, development fees in Vancouver have surged, resulting in delays, layoffs, and cancellations, including Wesgroup’s Ardea project. River District began as a vision to turn an old sawmill into a vibrant, walkable neighborhood, but it now reflects a bigger story about how policy, taxes, and costs are reshaping housing supply across Canada.
Click here to watch on YouTube.
]]>The Home Owner Grant reduces the amount of property tax you pay on your principal residence. The regular grant amount is $570 for properties located in the Capital Regional District, Metro Vancouver Regional District, and Fraser Valley Regional District. For all other areas of B.C., the grant amount is $770. Property owners must pay at least $350 in property taxes before receiving the regular grant.
The First Time Home Buyers’ Program reduces or eliminates the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) when you purchase your first home in B.C. To qualify, the property must:
If all requirements are met, you are exempt from PTT on the first $500,000 of the purchase price. A partial exemption applies for homes between $835,000 and $860,000.
The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is a registered plan that allows first-time home buyers to save for a qualifying home tax-free (within certain limits):
The First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit (HBTC) provides a non-refundable federal tax credit to help offset closing costs like legal fees and inspections.
The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) allows you to withdraw from your RRSP to buy or build a qualifying home.
In May 2025, the federal government announced a new GST rebate aimed at helping first-time home buyers purchase newly built homes. The rebate, once enacted, will significantly expand the tax relief available to Canadians entering the housing market for the first time.
Under the proposal, eligible buyers will receive a 100% rebate of the federal GST (or the federal portion of HST) on new homes valued at up to $1,000,000. The rebate will then phase out gradually for homes priced between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000, with no rebate available beyond that amount.
To qualify, the home must be used as your primary residence, and you must meet the government’s definition of a first-time home buyer—meaning you haven’t owned (or lived in a home owned by your spouse or common-law partner) as a principal residence during the current year or the previous four years. The program applies to:
According to CMHC, around 2,500 new construction condo units that have completed remain unsold across Metro Vancouver. On the other hand Altus Group reports there are 13,000 unsold condo units that have launched or completed, creating shadow inventory you don’t see on the MLS that continues to build. Developers who banked on rapid absorption are now contending with higher construction costs, weaker presale demand, and exorbitant development fees. For example, Wesgroup recently cancelled its 204-unit Ardea project at River District, citing costs that no longer made the project viable.
Other developers have delayed launches or quietly extended presale timelines. Some are pivoting their projects entirely, converting condos into purpose-built rental units, or cancelling them altogether. There’s been virtually no new housing development launched in the Lower Mainland for the past few months. Greg Zayadi, the president of Rennie said the last time we saw this level of developer-owned unsold inventory was 24 years ago. Good news if you’re in the market to buy a new condo. For sellers, it’s a more demanding market. Well-priced, well-presented properties are still selling, but listings that overshoot the mark inevitably go stale.
Regional Highlights
Metro Vancouver plans to overhaul developer fees
On October 3, the Metro Vancouver Regional District board unanimously approved updates to its development cost charge (DCC) regime, refining categories and definitions to better align with varied housing types and reduce barriers for smaller projects. These changes, shaped by public input via surveys and workshops, will feed into the 2027 DCC program update—using population forecasts and capital plans—with new rates in 2028. Key changes:
DCCs—fees on new developments—fund essential water and sewage upgrades, but builders slam them as affordability killers. For a new Vancouver-area apartment, fees jumped from $6,249 last year to $13,392 now, hitting $20,906 by 2027—a 235% spike that nix projects in a sluggish market. B.C. offered eligible builds a 2024-rate extension through July. Wesbild CEO Kevin Layden quipped: “We’re taxing new homes at the same rate, relatively, as we do cigarettes.” He urged alternative funding: “There needs to be another way… than just putting it on the cost of new homes.” Staff hailed the moves as ensuring “different housing types are appropriately categorized.”
Industrial market holds steady amid broader slowdown
Greater Vancouver’s commercial real estate market continued to cool in the second quarter of 2025, with overall transaction volume down 16 per cent from the previous quarter and nearly 50 per cent below last year’s pace. Total sales across all asset classes reached 286 in Q2, compared to 567 a year earlier, with dollar volumes falling 67.6 per cent to $1.17 billion.
While every segment saw a year-over-year pullback, industrial real estate remained one of the more resilient categories in an otherwise subdued landscape. The region recorded 81 industrial transactions in Q2 2025, down 52% from the same period last year, with a total dollar value of $327 million—a 63% decline from 2024. Despite the contraction, industrial continues to perform relatively better than the multi-family and land sectors, where activity has slowed dramatically amid rising costs and development uncertainty.
According to Greater Vancouver Realtors’ director of economics and data analytics, Andrew Lis, the moderation aligns with expectations for the year. “Industrial, office, and retail transactions remain relatively strong compared with the multi-family and land segments,” he noted, adding that this trend is expected to continue through year-end.
The industrial sector’s comparative strength reflects its essential role in supporting logistics, e-commerce, and manufacturing—areas that remain structurally in demand despite higher borrowing costs. However, fewer large-scale sales and continued caution from investors are keeping total dollar volumes in check.
Overall, while the commercial market is firmly in a period of adjustment, the industrial segment continues to stand out as a relatively stable performer, balancing softer sales activity with steady underlying demand for well-located warehouse and light-industrial space across the Lower Mainland.
]]>There were 1,959 residential transactions recorded last month, a 2.9% increase compared to August 2024, though activity remained 19% below the region’s ten-year seasonal average. On the supply side, 4,225 new listings came to market, putting overall inventory at 16,242 homes. That’s nearly 18% higher than last year and well above long-term norms.
The sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 12.4% overall, with detached homes at 9.3%, townhomes at 15.8%, and apartments at 14.0%. Ratios at these levels indicate conditions that lean toward balanced to soft, particularly for detached properties. Prices moved down across all categories. The composite benchmark price is now $1,150,400, a 3.8% decline from last year and 1.3% lower than in July. Detached homes are at $1,950,300, down 4.8% year over year, while townhomes and apartments are at $1,079,600 and $734,400, representing annual decreases of 3.5% and 4.4% respectively.
What stands out is that sales in the detached and attached segments are more than 10% higher than a year ago, pointing to renewed activity in higher price brackets. At the same time, prices have eased about 2% since the start of the year and 1% month over month in August, showing that sellers have been adjusting expectations. As buyers and sellers come closer together on price, transaction volume has picked up. With new listings tracking close to the ten-year seasonal average and sales improving, we may start to see inventory tighten in the months ahead. If that happens, the current window of strong opportunity for buyers could narrow as we move into the fall.
Fraser Valley firmly in buyer’s market
It’s a different story in the Fraser Valley, as the region saw home sales fall 13% over last year and 20% month over month. Last month’s sales were 36% below the 10-year average, signalling a strong buyer’s market with an overall sales-to-active listings ratio at 9%. Current market conditions are allowing buyers the opportunity to make bold offers, especially for properties that have been on the market for a while and where sellers may be more motivated.
In the Fraser Valley, benchmark home prices continued to edge down in August. The composite Benchmark price fell 0.9% from July to $936,200. Detached homes saw the sharpest decline, with the Benchmark price dropping to $1,436,800—down 1% month-over-month and 5.7% compared to last year. Townhomes followed a similar path, dipping 0.9% from July and 4.5% annually to $807,800. Apartments posted the largest year-over-year decline, with the Benchmark price falling to $514,100, down 1% from July and 5.9% from August 2024. There’s now more than 10 months of inventory for sale in the Fraser Valley condo market.
Sellers across Canada cancelling listings at near record high
Home sellers in Canada are cancelling listings at a rapid pace as they fail to get their prices. In July, more than one in five listings—about 22.5%—were canceled, marking one of the highest withdrawal rates on record. While similar percentages were seen during the market slowdown in 2022, today’s volume is even greater given the higher number of active listings overall.
Rather than lower their prices, many sellers are choosing to step back and wait, hoping conditions will improve or interest rates will ease in the months ahead. But with a steady flow of new listings and completions entering the market, waiting carries its own risks—by the time they relist, competition could be even stronger.
For buyers, this creates a unique window of opportunity. As sellers retreat, motivated listings stand out more, giving buyers room to negotiate and potentially secure homes under market value. For sellers, the trend is a reminder that adjusting expectations early can often be a better strategy than pulling back and waiting for uncertain market shifts.
BC sets 2026 rent increase cap at 2.3%
The BC government has set the maximum allowable rent increase for 2026 at 2.3%, a step down from the 3.0% limit in 2025. The cap is tied directly to the province’s inflation rate, which has eased over the past year. This makes 2026 one of the few times in the last two decades where the permitted increase is this low, a clear sign of the shifting economic environment.
For tenants, the 2.3% cap in 2026 means rent hikes will be limited, offering some short-term relief as overall housing costs remain a challenge. But for landlords, the reality is tougher—most expenses, from taxes to insurance to maintenance, are rising faster than 2.3%. That gap makes holding rental property less profitable, especially for small owners without scale.
The rules leave little room to adjust. Rent can only go up once a year with three months’ notice, and increases beyond the cap are only allowed in rare cases like major repairs. For many landlords, that means absorbing higher costs or passing on upgrades, while tenants benefit from controlled increases regardless of the owner’s bottom line. The implication is clear: renters get predictability, landlords get squeezed. Over time, that pressure could discourage investment in rental housing, limiting supply and putting more strain on affordability overall.
Dubai real estate market is booming
If Metro Vancouver’s housing market is cause for concern, Dubai presents a compelling alternative. The UAE’s property market is “sizzling”, attracting global investors seeking tax advantages and high rental yields. With no property or capital gains taxes, Dubai offers a more favorable environment for real estate investment. Additionally, the UAE provides clear pathways to residency through property ownership, such as the Golden Visa for investments over AED 2 million. Dubai’s dynamic market and investor-friendly rules make it a serious alternative for anyone eyeing diversification, or a change of scenery.
]]>Active listings dipped slightly to just over 17,000 homes, remaining about 20% higher than last year at this time. New listings held steady, reflecting seller hesitation amid softening prices. This supply continues to give buyers plenty of options, preventing rapid price increases. Yet the first month-over-month inventory decline since 2022 suggests the market is slowly rebalancing. If inventory continues to tighten, we could see price stabilization or even modest gains later this year.
The benchmark price currently sits at $1,165,300 for Metro Vancouver, down 2.7% year-over-year and 0.7% since June. Detached homes and condos remain under downward pressure due to abundant supply and cautious buyers. Townhomes buck the trend slightly—sales increased 5% year-over-year despite a small price dip—indicating demand for more affordable options. Overall, price declines have slowed and appear to be approaching a floor as supply and demand start to find a balance.
Outside the core, several suburban areas are outperforming. Burnaby and New Westminster posted sales increases of 30-40% compared to June, accompanied by tightening inventory. North Vancouver is edging closer to seller’s market conditions as supply falls and sales hold steady. The Tri-Cities region—especially Port Coquitlam—stands out with a 47% sales jump from June and months of inventory dropping to just four, signaling a meaningful shift. Conversely, Vancouver West and Richmond still face challenges, with slower sales and persistent oversupply.
The Fraser Valley market in seasonal slowdown
Heading East, home sales reached 1,190, a slight 0.5% dip from June and 3% lower than last year, sitting 23% below the 10-year monthly average. Inventory stayed high, with active listings down 2% from June to 10,650—still about 50% above the seasonal norm. New listings eased 5% to 3,453. With a sales-to-active listings ratio of just 11%, the market remains firmly in buyer’s territory. On average, detached homes and condos sold in 38 days, while townhomes moved a bit faster at 35 days.
Prices continued to soften across all property types. The composite benchmark price for the Fraser Valley dropped 0.7% in July to $944,800. Detached homes fell 0.5% from June to $1,451,100, down 5.1% year-over-year. Townhomes saw a steeper monthly decline of 1.2% to $814,900, which is 4.0% lower than last year. Apartment prices slipped 1.4% to $519,300, marking a 5.8% annual decrease. Overall, the data points to a softening market where buyers have the upper hand amid abundant inventory and cautious seller pricing.
Ottawa under pressure to loosen foreign homebuyer ban
In late July, 26 major B.C. real estate firms called on Ottawa and Victoria to ease Canada’s foreign buyer ban and B.C.’s additional tax on non-resident buyers. They propose an Australian-style model, where foreign buyers can purchase only new builds, pre-sales, or vacant land, arguing this would boost pre-construction sales—a critical factor for securing development financing.
The industry’s case is straightforward: without more capital, new housing starts will keep falling. The federal ban, in place since 2023 and extended to 2027, has overwhelming public support—76% nationwide, cutting across party lines. Still, pressure is mounting as developers in Ontario and B.C. grapple with record-low pre-construction sales, swelling unsold inventory you typically don’t see on the MLS® (13,000 new condos in Greater Vancouver alone), and stalled project launches. Whether policy makers will bend before 2027 remains an open question.
Rents continue to ease in BC
According to rentals.ca, in July 2025, British Columbia recorded one of the largest rent declines in Canada, with average asking rents for purpose-built and condo apartments down 3.1% year-over-year to $2,472. Over the past two years, rents have fallen by the same margin—a rare dip in a market long known for high costs—though they remain 6.2% higher than three years ago. The slowdown is most evident in smaller units, with one-bedroom rents dropping 4.7%, while three-bedroom units rose 6.0%, likely due to stronger demand from families or shared households. Vancouver led the decline among Canada’s major cities with a 7.0% annual drop and is the only major market to post a three-year decrease, down 3.9%.
Not all parts of B.C. are cooling. Abbotsford posted the second-fastest rent growth in the country at 8.9% year-over-year, while Nanaimo saw a modest 1.6% increase. North Vancouver remains the province’s most expensive rental market at $3,084, followed by Richmond ($2,769), Coquitlam ($2,700), and Burnaby ($2,642). Overall, the data suggests the B.C. rental market is rebalancing, with high-priced urban cores softening while more affordable, commuter-friendly cities continue to draw demand.
]]>The housing market showed early signs of stabilization in June, following a subdued start to the year. Residential sales totaled 2,181, down 9.8% from last year, yet the rate of year-over-year decline was half that of the previous month, indicating early signs of a possible recovery. There were 6,315 new listings, 10.3% higher than last year, with total active listings at 17,561, a 23.8% annual increase and 43.7% above the 10-year average.
The sales-to-active listings ratio remains in balanced territory at 12.8%, suggesting minimal pressure on prices, which continue to trend sideways across all major property types. The sales-to-active listings ratio is 12.8%; 9.9% for detached, 16.9% for attached, and 13.9% for apartments. Townhomes were the only property type that saw a year over year increase in sales at +3.7%. The sales ratio for detached homes in Vancouver’s Eastside saw the greatest increase, which is in-line with increased demand for multiplex housing. The City of Coquitlam adopted a new Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing policy, allowing 4 units on former single-family and duplex lots, 0.75 FSR, and 50% lot coverage.
The market remains relatively balanced with lateral price movement since early 2025. Inventory levels aren’t building as quickly, and with mortgage rates down around 2% since last summer, if the trend holds we may see year-over-year sales across the board turn positive in the coming months.
Wesgroup Properties, the developer behind River District announced difficult layoffs, citing slowing presales, rising construction costs, and overall project delays. This reflects broader caution among large-scale developers across Canada, as projects are either being cancelled or delayed because they are no longer viable.
One such presale project is Siena at the Heights in Burnaby, which left buyers in limbo—unable to recover deposits without court process. The project was halted after excavation, with the developer defaulting on ~$30 million in loans and was placed in receivership.
Several planned condo developments in Surrey are being converted into rental buildings as a solution to sluggish presales, tighter financing, and higher holding costs. Tangerine Developments, GEC, and Allure Ventures are some of the developers that had to pivot their approach to meet the project’s proforma requirements. The trend is aligned with a broader provincial push for purpose-built rental housing.
National and BC rent report from rentals.ca
In May 2025, the national average asking rent in Canada was $2,129, down 3.3% year‑over‑year and marking the eighth consecutive month of declines. Among top markets, British Columbia cities continued to dominate the most expensive rental rankings: North Vancouver topped the chart with a one-bedroom at $2,620 (–4.9% Y/Y), followed by Vancouver ($2,544, –4.8% Y/Y), Burnaby ($2,337, –8.2% Y/Y), Coquitlam ($2,334, +0.6% Y/Y).
Airbnb canceled “thousands” of bookings across British Columbia ahead of the June 23 deadline, citing widespread technical glitches in the provincial short‑term rental registration system—even for hosts who meet the criteria. The platform says it proactively notified affected guests to give them time to rebook, urging the government to extend the deadline to Labour Day. The BC government counters that the system is working and accuses Airbnb of using cancellations as leverage against lawful regulations aimed at freeing up housing inventory. Under the 2023 reforms, only principal residences (including secondary suites or laneway homes) are eligible as vacation rentals, effectively banning investment properties in many areas.
Granville Island housing proposal
To the dismay of many, former B.C. premier Mike Harcourt, who originally helped create Granville Island, has suggested adding 10–15‑storey residential towers on underused parking lots to help address the site’s estimated $300 million in urgent upgrades—covering the Public Market roof, infrastructure, and seawall. The proposal comes due to uncertain federal and provincial funding. Granville Island’s general manager is receptive to new ideas, and a charitable foundation is being set up next year to raise funds. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which currently manages the island, has no housing plans yet.
GST rebate for first-time homebuyers
Effective May 27, 2025, the Canadian government has introduced a First-Time Home Buyers’ (FTHB) GST Rebate: a 100% rebate on the 5% GST for new homes priced up to $1 million, and a linear phase-out for homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (e.g., 20% rebate on a $1.4M home). To qualify, buyers must be at least 18, a Canadian citizen or permanent resident, and have not owned a home in the past four years. The rebate can only be claimed once per individual (or couple), and if your spouse has already claimed it, you’re ineligible. Note: contracts signed before May 27, 2025 or assignment sales from earlier agreements don’t qualify. Finally, the GST must be paid at closing, with the rebate claimed afterwards—unless the builder agrees to credit it upfront.
]]>The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 13.4%, favouring buyers, yet buyers remain hesitant as inventory builds. By property type, the ratio is 10.2% for detached homes, 17.4% for attached, and 14.7% for apartments. Benchmark prices had a modest year-over-year decline with detached homes at $1,997,400 (down 3.2%), apartments at $757,300 (down 2.4%), and townhouses at $1,106,800 (down 3.4%)—the only segment that had a month-over-month price increase at 0.4%.
New condo sales in Greater Vancouver overall were down 84% in Q1 2025, compared to the height of the bull market in Q1 2022, according to Altus Group. It’s a more dire situation in Toronto, Canada’s largest urban center, where new home sales plummeted 72% year-over-year, with only 310 units sold—105 of them condos—the lowest on record! Inventory levels in Toronto surged to 21,363 units, equating to 15 months of supply, well above the balanced market range of 4 to 6 months.
Factors contributing to this downturn include tariff uncertainties, persistent unaffordability, rising unemployment, and migration of prime-aged workers to other provinces. Investor demand has collapsed after making up more than 35% of the market over the past five years. Many sellers still expect peak 2021/22 prices, while buyers are either sidelined or being extremely selective. Year-to-date, sales in 2025 are among the slowest starts in the past decade. Whether the second half of the year brings a meaningful rebound remains to be seen.
CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey Highlights
CMHC released their 2025 Mortgage Consumer Survey, noting renewals are still the leading mortgage transactions. 12% of respondents were first-time homebuyers, up from 10% in 2024. 35% of these buyers lived with friends or family before purchasing, while 64% rented for an average of 6.3 years prior to buying. Additionally, over a quarter of mortgage consumers have a secondary suite, with about 10% planning to add one.
Gifts or inheritance remained a big component of the down payment, however, there’s a growing concern as more consumers report difficulties in maintaining debt payments (51% in 2025 compared to 42% in 2024). Causes for concern over defaulting were mainly based on economic reasons (cost of living increases, recession fears, increase in interest rates).
Changes to FTHB GST rebate on new housing
The federal government has introduced a new GST rebate to make it easier for first-time home buyers to afford a new home. Announced on May 27, 2025, the First-Time Home Buyers’ GST Rebate allows eligible buyers to recover up to $50,000 in GST on new homes, including those bought from builders, owner-built homes, or co-op housing units. The rebate fully applies to homes priced up to $1 million, with a phased reduction between $1 million and $1.5 million, and no rebate for homes over $1.5 million. To qualify, at least one buyer must meet the first-time buyer criteria and intend to use the home as their primary residence.
BCREA pushes for short-term rental reform
The BC Real Estate Association is calling on the provincial government to revisit and refine its Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act in light of economic impacts, tourism demand, and local community needs. While supporting the goal of increasing long-term rental housing, BCREA recommended the following key changes:
With domestic tourism expected to rise this summer, BCREA argues that thoughtful adjustments to STR regulations are essential to protect both housing goals and BC’s broader economic health. The provincial government hasn’t shown any signs of leniency as the new restrictions aim to crack down on illegal listings. As of May 1, 2025, all short-term rental hosts in B.C. should have registered their listings and received a provincial registration number. To date, more than 20,000 listings have been registered:
CondoDay
Real estate strategist and marketer, Cam Good, held a flash sale on newly built Surrey City Centre condos by slashing prices 25%. It drew in a crowd of around 200, and sold nearly all of the 78 homes available. “We hope more developers are inspired by this program and explore creative ways to help buyers get into the market,” said Good on the bulk flash sale model, a tactic rarely used in today’s high-priced housing market. You can keep an eye on future deals on the CondoDay website here: https://condoday.ca.
Vancouver City Council approves the Granville Street Plan
The Granville Street Plan is a comprehensive 20-year strategy aimed at transforming Granville Street into a vibrant, pedestrian-friendly destination that honors its cultural heritage while promoting economic growth and public safety.
On the supply side, the market is seeing a notable increase in available homes. New listings in April 2025 reached 6,850, a 3.4% decrease from 7,092 in April 2024, but total active listings rose 29.7% to 16,207. This inventory level is the highest since 2014 and 47.6% above the 10-year average of 10,979, indicating a continued shift toward a buyer’s market. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 13.8% in April 2025, with detached homes at 9.9%, attached homes at 17.5%, and apartments at 15.7%. Months of supply held steady at 7, partly due to some properties being taken off the market and re-listed at lower prices. It’s also likely that some sellers have withdrawn entirely after being unable to achieve their desired sale price. Neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear advantage.
The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,184,500 in April 2025, down 1.8% from April 2024 and 0.5% from March 2025. Specifically, detached homes had a benchmark price of $2,021,800, a 0.7% year-over-year decline; apartments were priced at $762,800, down 2.0%; and attached homes stood at $1,102,300, down 2.9%. These modest price reductions suggest that the increased supply is giving buyers more negotiating power, contributing to a stabilization of the market. As Chris Voss, author of Never Split The Difference would say, you don’t get what you want in life, you get what you negotiate—and right now, you can negotiate.
BCREA predicts modest growth
The BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) provided a provincial forecast for 2025 and 2026, projecting 73,650 MLS unit sales across BC, a 1.1% decline from 74,479 in 2024, with an average price of $972,800, down 0.9% from $981,871. Housing starts are expected to fall by 14.9% to 39,000 units. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2026, with sales projected to rise by 8.8% to 80,150 units, prices increasing by 3.2% to $1,004,000, and housing starts growing by 7.7% to 42,000 units.
In Greater Vancouver, sales are expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26,000 units in 2025, with average prices falling by 2.1% to $1,265,000. The Fraser Valley anticipates a 2.4% drop in sales to 13,500 units and a 0.6% price decrease to $1,032,400. Conversely, Victoria is projected to see a 1.8% increase in sales to 6,700 units and a 1.7% price rise to $990,000.
The broader BC market is influenced by several factors, including economic uncertainties such as US tariffs, which could dampen growth and even push the province toward recessionary conditions. The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, reducing the overnight rate from 5% to 2.75% and bringing five-year fixed mortgage rates below 4.5%, have lowered borrowing costs. However, buyer hesitation persists, with first-quarter 2025 sales 20% below the long-run average, suggesting that confidence has yet to fully return.
National housing market outlook
Nationally, the Canadian housing market appears to be navigating a period of modest decline, with a potential rebound on the horizon. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its 2025 forecast, projecting 482,673 residential transactions across Canada, a slight 0.02% decrease from 2024, and an average home price of $687,898, down 0.3%. Looking ahead to 2026, CREA anticipates a recovery, with sales rising by 2.9% to 496,487 units and prices increasing by 1.2% to $696,074. The interplay of these dynamics suggests that while 2025 may be a challenging year, the market’s underlying resilience could pave the way for improvement in 2026.
Mark Carney’s housing agenda
Following his election victory, Mark Carney is prioritizing housing affordability and supply, with ambitious plans to double annual home construction to 500,000 units over the next decade. Whether the Liberals can achieve even half of that remains to be seen. Experts note potential hurdles, including labor shortages (the Canadian Construction Association estimates a shortfall of one million workers), regulatory fragmentation across provinces, and economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Central to this strategy is the creation of Build Canada Homes (BCH), a government entity tasked with constructing affordable housing. BCH is expected to provide $25 billion in debt financing, $1 billion in equity financing for prefabricated home builders, and $10 billion for affordable homebuilders.
Other measures include eliminating the GST on new homes priced at or below $1 million for first-time homebuyers, reintroducing the Multiple Unit Rental Building (MURB) tax incentive to encourage rental property development, and implementing the Housing Accelerator Fund to reduce municipal development charges by half for multi-unit housing over five years. These policies aim to streamline regulations and boost supply, but their success hinges on overcoming bureaucratic challenges, as some developers are rightly concerned.
Rental market showing signs of stabilization
According to the rentals.ca National Rent Report for April 2025, after six consecutive months of annual rent declines, Canada’s rental market showed signs of turning a corner. The average asking rent in March 2025 was $2,119, down 2.8% from the previous year but up 1.5% month-over-month, marking the first monthly increase since September 2024. The seasonal rise in demand and slight improvements in affordability likely contributed to this rebound, though the market remains weighed down by an elevated supply of newly completed apartments.
Looking at the five-year trend since March 2020, average asking rents are up 17.8%. Purpose-built rental apartments led this growth with a 35.5% increase, while condo rents remained mostly flat, rising only 0.6%. Among purpose-built units, three-bedroom and studio apartments saw the strongest year-over-year rent growth, while one- and two-bedrooms saw moderate declines. Larger units have seen the sharpest rent increases over five years, with three-bedroom units up nearly 40%.
In British Columbia, rental markets continued their downward trend in March 2025, with several cities hitting multi-year lows. Vancouver, long the country’s most expensive rental market, saw average asking rents for purpose-built and condo apartments fall to $2,822, a 5.7% year-over-year drop and the lowest level in nearly three years. North Vancouver and Langley experienced even steeper declines, down 8.1% and 12.9% respectively. These drops reflect both a softening in demand and an increase in available rental supply, particularly in new purpose-built developments.
Despite the overall cooling, some pockets of BC bucked the trend. Richmond recorded one of the fastest rent increases in the country, rising 6.9% year-over-year, landing it among Canada’s priciest markets alongside Burnaby and Coquitlam. The continued strength in these suburban centres may signal a shift in renter preferences toward slightly more affordable alternatives with good access to transit and amenities. Over the past five years, BC rents remain significantly elevated, up 23.6%, reinforcing affordability challenges across much of the province.
Navigating the cooling housing market
The cooling housing market in BC, particularly in Metro Vancouver, suggests that buyers have more options and negotiating power than in recent years. The increased inventory and balanced market conditions could make this an opportune time for those looking to purchase, especially as prices stabilize or slightly decline. However, sellers may need to adjust expectations, as the days of rapid price growth appear to be on hold.
For renters, the softening rental market in Vancouver and other urban centers offers a chance to secure more affordable housing, though vigilance is needed given the recent monthly rent increases. Investors and landlords, meanwhile, may benefit from policy incentives like the MURB tax break, but they should also prepare for a competitive rental market with potentially lower returns in some areas.
The broader economic context, including interest rate trends and potential trade disruptions, will continue to shape the market. The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts have made borrowing more accessible, but global uncertainties could temper buyer and investor confidence. Additionally, Carney’s housing policies, if effectively implemented, could significantly boost supply, potentially easing affordability pressures over time.
]]>