Holiday Market Update December 09, 2025

As the year winds down, Greater Vancouver’s housing market is cooling in familiar ways. Sales and new listings are trending lower, while inventory remains steady but elevated—now sitting 36% above the 10-year average. November sales fell 15.4% year-over-year, and active listings climbed 14.4%. The benchmark price lowered to $1,123,700, a 3.9% decline from last year, prompting many sellers to recalibrate their expectations. With roughly 8 months of supply on the market, conditions favour prepared buyers, yet waiting too long could mean missing out to those ready to act on well-priced homes. As we move into the holiday season—traditionally the quietest stretch of the calendar—deals are still getting done, but they’re driven by realistic pricing, clear motivation, and negotiation that meets the market where it is.

With nine Bank of Canada rate cuts since the 2024 peak, borrowing costs have finally moved low enough to boost real purchasing power again. For a typical Vancouver household, buying power has jumped since rates topped out—and prices themselves have come down. That combination, paired with record-level pent-up demand after years of hesitation, sets the stage for buyers to re-enter the market with renewed momentum in 2026.

November delivered quieter headline numbers but stronger fundamentals. Sales softened month-over-month—normal for this time of year—but new listings fell much faster, pushing the ratio up to 49% from 41% in October. Active inventory dropped across most areas, still a buyer’s market but trending tighter. Many submarkets—including Vancouver East, the Westside, North Vancouver, Burnaby East, and several Tri-Cities communities—posted healthier ratios as sellers pulled back and motivated buyers stepped in.

Across the Fraser Valley, the same pattern repeated: fewer new listings, shrinking inventory, and improving balance despite slower seasonal sales. Even in the Fraser Valley—still sitting at 10 months of supply—inventory declined sharply, and prices ticked up 2% month-over-month as competition increased. Markets like Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, and parts of Burnaby saw some of the strongest conditions in the region, driven by affordability and limited supply.

Overall, November was telling. Inventory is falling faster than sales. Ratios are improving. Confidence is building as rates settle. And with 2025 on track to record the fewest transactions since 2000—despite over a million more people living in the region—the backlog of buyers and sellers is growing. This winter may feel calm, but the foundation is forming for a more active, competitive 2026.

Distressed mortgages on the rise Canada is seeing a noticeable rise in mortgage stress, with mortgage arrears climbing to the highest level since 2020 at major Canadian banks. According to data from the Canadian Bankers Association, the arrears rate reached around 0.24% in September 2025, up from record lows in mid-2022, and the number of mortgages at least 90 days past due has increased sharply — more than 60% above the lows seen a few years ago. This uptick comes against a backdrop of a shrinking total mortgage stock at banks, which amplifies the impact of each delinquency.

Vancouver property tax 0% increase for 2026

Vancouver City Council approved a 0% property tax increase for 2026, sticking with Mayor Ken Sim’s "Zero Means Zero" promise. The idea is to give homeowners and businesses a break next year while still keeping core services running. To make it work, the city will need to find about $120 million in savings — trimming around the edges without affecting services like police, fire, libraries, or community centres.

The move has been divisive. Hundreds of residents and groups showed up to speak at council meetings, and unions warned the freeze could lead to job cuts or reduced services down the line. Supporters say it’s a needed breather during a tough affordability stretch; critics say the math doesn’t add up without something giving. The decision to not raise taxes comes after the Sim administration hit taxpayers with property tax increases of 10.7, 7.28 and 3.9 per cent over the first three years of ABC Vancouver’s term at city hall.

Speculation and Vacancy Tax to increase in 2026

B.C. is moving ahead with an increase to its Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT) in 2026 even as the federal government scraps its own underused housing tax. Under changes outlined in the provincial budget, SVT rates will rise — for most Canadian and permanent-resident owners from 0.5% to 1% of assessed value, and for foreign owners and untaxed worldwide earners from 2% to 3% — effective for the 2026 tax year. To help offset the higher levy for local residents, the non-refundable SVT credit will also be increased.

The provincial government has positioned the tax as a tool to encourage residential properties to be used as homes rather than investment vehicles, and to support affordable housing initiatives. This provincial plan now stands in contrast to federal policy, with Ottawa eliminating its Underused Housing Tax, which had seen limited uptake and revenue, prompting questions across the market about the alignment and effectiveness of housing tax measures.