If January was any indication, 2025 is set to be anything but predictable. The full blown Canada-U.S. tariff war and economic uncertainty will define the months ahead. While we've heard the politics ad nauseam, our focus remains on the implications for the housing market. Under the most likely scenario, the BC housing market would see a temporary decline in activity before posting a robust recovery as mortgage rates decline substantially, thereby unleashing pent-up demand.

New home listings on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver surged by 46%, the highest number of new listings for the month since 2012. In Fraser Valley, listings increased 49% year-over-year. This is partly attributed to properties that were taken of the market in late 2024, as a recent study by National Bank Financial found that sellers across Canada cancelled 1 in 5 listings. Sellers banking on a Spring market revival might find themselves competing with a wave of re-listings.

There were 1,552 residential sales for the month, marking an 8.8% increase from January 2024's 1,427 sales, though still sitting 11.3% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,749. The previous three months saw a rise in buyer demand, but it seems the momentum has shifted toward sellers this January. Despite the uptick in new listings, sales continue to surpass last year’s numbers, suggesting that buyer interest remains strong.

A total of 5,566 properties were newly listed in January, a significant 46.9% rise compared to the 3,788 properties listed the year before, which is 31.1% above the 10-year seasonal average. Currently, there are 11,494 properties available on the MLS®, a 33.1% increase from January 2024. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 14.1% overall, with detached homes at 9.2%, attached homes at 18.5%, and apartments at 16.5%.

Given the current listing activity, January’s price trends showed minimal fluctuation across all property types, signalling a balanced market. While moderate price growth is anticipated by year-end, potential economic shocks could influence those projections. The future of these tariffs and Canada’s response could determine the housing market's trajectory in the coming months.

The benchmark for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,173,000, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% from January 2024. Breaking it down by property type:

Month’s supply of total residential listings:

Rents are reversing in many major metros, with the average asking rent for all residential properties in Canada falling 4.4% to an 18-month low, according to a National Rent Report from rentals.ca and Urbanation.

Suze Cumming, Canadian negotiation expert and founder of The Nature of Real Estate, described Trump's hardball negotiation tactics as a textbook masterclass:

Fixed-Pie Mindset – I win, you lose.
High Opening Demands – Set the bar unreasonably high to shift expectations.
Limited Information Sharing – Keep opponents in the dark.
Abuse of Power – Leverage authority to force concessions.
Time Pressure – Manufacture urgency to create panic.
Facts Manipulation – Control the narrative.
Personal Insults – Discredit the opposition.
Walk Away – Signal indifference to force movement.
Red Herring – Distract with unrelated issues (fentanyl, immigration).
Brinkmanship – Pushing to the edge of disaster.
Moving Goalposts – Shifting demands to keep control.
Coalition Disruption – Divide and conquer.
Creating Uncertainty – Use fear as leverage.
Overwhelm – Flood the field to confuse and delay response.

Panic they did—yanking American-made liquor off shelves and canceling a $100 million Starlink contract (to which Elon Musk shrugged, "Oh well")—only to reverse course when tariffs were delayed for 30 days.

Ironically, Trump's meme coin raked in nearly $100 million solely in trading fees after its market value surged to $14.5 billion the day before his inauguration. Since the tariff announcement, it's plunged 75% from its all-time high.

After the BoC trimmed its key rate by 25bps, Canada's benchmark prime dipped to 5.2%, the lowest in almost two and a half years. Amid the pending tariff threats, BMO now expects 6 straight quarter point cuts from the Bank of Canada, until the policy rate reaches 1.5% in October. Data from CMHC suggests interest rate volatility in that nearly 60% of all mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 and 2026. While rate cuts have improved sentiment, rising bond yields may limit fixed-rate mortgage relief. The 5-year yield rallied all the way back—closing up 1 bp after Trump postponed tariffs 30 days. Mortgage expert Ron Butler shared an important point for those who have received renewal notices in the last 30 days: every rate you are being offered by your incumbent lender can be negotiated lower.

Here are the best mortgage rates in Canada right now. 

Last spring, the Federal Government put forth a proposal to increase the portion of capital gains that companies are taxed on—from one-half to two-thirds. As a result, many companies and individuals took steps to adjust their financial strategies in anticipation of this adjustment. However, the proposal has yet to become law, especially since the government is prorogued until March 24. 

Despite this uncertainty, the CRA had planned to act as though the proposal has already been enacted and charge the higher taxes accordingly. While the current law specifies that taxes are based on just one-half of the gain, the CRA was going to move forward with taxing two-thirds of the gain. 

Now the government is deferring the date on which the capital gains inclusion rate would increase from one-half to two-thirds on certain capital gains. The new effective date is now January 1, 2026. CPA Canada is calling for a full repeal of the proposed capital gains changes, "citing growing economic uncertainty."